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It’s a “Me-cession”, not a recession
The Canadian economy avoided falling into a recession in 2024, despite one of the sharpest increases in interest rates in Canadian history and the most restrictive monetary policy in over a decade. However, despite avoiding a recession, individual households and businesses do not feel positive about the state of the economy, with confidence measures below their pre-pandemic level.
Year one of TMX: Increased diversification, disappearing oil discount, and C$13bn in extra revenues
The expanded TransMountain Pipeline (TMX) has brought significant benefits to the oil sector and the economy in its first year of operation.
Where’s the boom? And the rise and fall of the Alberta Advantage
Despite record levels of oil revenue since mid-2021, Alberta’s economy is not seeing an associated boom, as a smaller share of revenues is staying in the province.
Servus Chief Economist
Charles St-Arnaud
Charles St-Arnaud is Chief Economist at Servus Credit Union. He has more than 20 years of experience as an Economist in the public and private sector, both in Canada and internationally. Before joining Servus, he was Chief Economist at Alberta Central. Before that, Charles focused on global financial markets as Senior Investment Strategist at Lombard Odier Investment Manager in London and as Senior Economist and FX Strategist at Nomura International in NYC and London. Charles was at the Department of Finance in Ottawa during the global financial crisis, where he advised senior officials on economic policy responses. He also worked for the Bank of Canada and Morgan Stanley. He is a regular contributor to the Financial Post, Globe&Mail, BNN Bloomberg, CBC/Radio-Canada and Calgary Herald. Charles holds an Msc. in Economics from Université du Québec à Montréal.
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Where’s the boom? And the rise and fall of the Alberta Advantage
Charles St-ArnaudDespite record levels of oil revenue since mid-2021, Alberta’s economy is not seeing an associated boom, as a smaller share of revenues is staying in the province.
Year one of TMX: Increased diversification, disappearing oil discount, and C$13bn in extra revenues
Charles St-ArnaudThe expanded TransMountain Pipeline (TMX) has brought significant benefits to the oil sector and the economy in its first year of operation.
The Lost Decade(s): or how the oil boom masked Canada’s economic mediocrity
Charles St-ArnaudMany observers have noted Canada’s underperformance in GDP per capita relative to other industrialized countries since 2015, a period often referred to as the “lost decade.”
It’s a “Me-cession”, not a recession
Charles St-ArnaudThe Canadian economy avoided falling into a recession in 2024, despite one of the sharpest increases in interest rates in Canadian history and the most restrictive monetary policy in over a decade. However, despite avoiding a recession, individual households and businesses do not feel positive about the state of the economy, with confidence measures below their pre-pandemic level.
What does it mean to restore housing affordability? Significant sacrifices
Charles St-ArnaudHousing affordability is now a national crisis. House prices have climbed well above income for over a decade. As we have shown previously, historically low interest rates before the pandemic offset some of the impact of higher prices and prevented a drastic decline in affordability.
Why are Albertans so grumpy? It's about falling behind economically
Charles St-ArnaudWestern alienation has a long history in Alberta, from the lack of lending to the province's farmers in the 1930s, which gave birth to Alberta's credit union system, to the National Energy Program in 1980, to what is currently viewed as an overly restrictive regulatory framework that stymies the oil and gas industry.
Where's the boom? How the impact of oil on Alberta may have permanently weakened
Charles St-ArnaudDespite oil production and revenues reaching record levels, Alberta is far from experiencing an economic boom similar to what we saw in the mid-2010s and the 2000s. This is because the nature of the oil industry has changed, likely forever, and its impact on the economy has weakened.
A successful MoU will require tens of billions in government support
Charles St-ArnaudTransforming Canada into an "energy superpower" has been the federal government's catchphrase since it was elected last year. This ambition is also set out in the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed with the government of Alberta. These developments have brought some hope that we will see a new wave of capital investment in the sector, boosting the economies of Canada and Alberta. However, many hurdles need to be passed before we start to see capital being committed and shovels in the ground.
The positive terms-of-trade from higher oil prices is not as positive as it used to be
Charles St-ArnaudAn increase in oil prices has generally been viewed as positive for the Canadian economy because of the improvement in the terms of trade it entails. As such, increased export revenues are usually a positive tailwind for the economy, leading to stronger growth, higher incomes, and currency appreciation.